Author(s): Terry D. Prowse; Barrie R. Bonsal; Martin P. Lacroix
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Abstract: River-ice breakup at higher latitudes is primarily a late spring event but historical records suggest that it is becoming earlier in many regions. Analysis of the timing of spring 0°C-air temperatures and ice breakup in a defined Northern Region of Canada over the last 50 years indicates a similar trend, the greatest change occurring in western areas. A first approximation regarding the effects of future climate change indicates that by the end of this century, breakup in northern Canada will be about two weeks to one month earlier. Within a defined Temperate Region that marks the edge of the cold regions, mid-winter warming events have become more common at its northern boundary over the last 100 years, but little difference is observed at the southern limit. A projected 2°C to 6°C warming under future climate will produce a major northward retreat of this temperate zone and a new set of river systems will be exposed to the effects of mid-winter warming and associated ice breakup.
Year: 2002