Author(s): Miguel Angel Perez-Martin; Pablor Vicent-Pastor; Carlos Minana-Albanell; Clara Estrela-Segrelles

Linked Author(s): Clara Estrela-Segrelles

Keywords: Climate Change; Adaptation Plan; River basin; Adaptation Measures

Abstract: Mediterranean is one of the most affected areas by climate change. The increase in air temperature, from 1ºC (2010-2040) to 4ºC (2070-2100), together with the reduction in precipitation, will affect the ecosystems, the water bodies state and the socioeconomic activities. The adaptation river basin plans to climate change will be the instrument to define the adaptation strategies and measures to apply in the coming years. A prototype of Climate Change Adaptation Plan of the Júcar River Basin District was developed with the support of the Biodiversity Foundation, which serves as experience for the future Adaptation Plans of the Spanish river basins. The Plan includes the identification and analysis of the main risks derived from climate change that may affect the state of water bodies and socioeconomic activities. Including the risks associated with: changes in the flow regime, changes in the extreme regime, the temperature increase, the sea level rise and the management of the system. In relation to water bodies state, results obtained show that the increase in air temperature will produce an increase in the water temperature, which, in turn, will produce at the end of the 21st century a very significant reduction in the potential habitat of cold water species, 80% of current habitat would be at high or very high risk, also a reduction in the water dissolved oxygen, between 0.50 and 0.75 mgO2/l, and macroinvertebrates would be affected in the 90% of surface water bodies. Besides the sea level rise in the Júcar river basin will fundamentally affect the coastal wetlands and especially to the Albufera de Valencia wetland. Based on the results obtained, the main measure to reduce vulnerability to climate change in rivers, is the improvement of riverside vegetation, since it provides shaded areas, which reduces direct sunlight radiation on the water and therefore reduces the temperature of the water. In addition, this measure favours biodiversity and refuges for species. In relation to socioeconomic activities, the reduction in natural water resources can reach to -21% RCP4.5 - 36% RCP8.5 scenario. This reduction will produce a decrease in the available water, increase the water stress of the vegetation and, also, reduce the hydroelectric production. By the other hand, irrigation needs will increase by 20% next years (2020-2050) to 40% by the end of the 21st century. The increase in the efficiency in the use of water, the increase in the reuse of regenerated water and desalination are necessary measures to reduce the risk associated with the reduction of natural resources and the increase in water needs. In turn, the integration of solar photovoltaic energy in these schemes can reduce the cost of the resources and contribute to the sustainability of the system

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3850/IAHR-39WC2521711920221668

Year: 2022