Author(s): Janez Susnik; Elham Bakhshianlamouki; Sara Masia; Poolad Karimi; Pieter Van Der Zaag

Linked Author(s):

Keywords: Water-energy-food nexus; System dynamics; Urmia Lake; Policy impact

Abstract: Water scarcity exacerbated by growing demand in multiple sectors has created environmental, social, and economic challenges in the Urmia Lake Basin (ULB), Iran. Tackling this problem requires an integrated approach considering the basin as an interconnected system where a change in one sector affects others. A System Dynamics Model is developed to simulate the water-energy-food nexus in the ULB as a holistic multi-sectoral system, with the aim to assess nexus-wide impacts of proposed lake restoration measures, especially looking for negative trade-offs. Besides considering climate change impacts, the impacts of different sets of measures including increasing irrigation efficiency, increasing return flows, inter-basin water transfers, cropland retirement, and reviving a portion of the lake on the natural resources and socio-economic state of ULB are analysed. Urmia Lake level is sensitive to climate change scenarios. A holistic restoration approach could be effective in returning the lake level to an ecological level threshold by 2040. However, in doing so, electricity demand in the agricultural sector could grow significantly. It is shown that a 20% retirement of irrigated wheat land to curb water demand, if coupled with 20% increase yield increases on 80% and 50% of irrigated and rain-fed fields respectively, will not reduce wheat production, addressing food security concerns. The effectiveness of water demand management measures is highly dependent on monitoring and enforcement, particularly in restricting growth in agricultural water consumption. This study considered all nexus sectors together to assess the total impact of proposed measures which on paper look positive, but may have unexpected consequences such as increasing energy demand for electric pumps. Nexus studies should strive for an integrated, holistic approach. With dialogue with Urmia Lake restoration practitioners, this work can feed in to inform effective decisions for the effective restoration of Urmia Lake.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3850/IAHR-39WC252171192022463

Year: 2022