Author(s): Teagan Lubiniecki; Colin Laroque; Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: River Ice; River Ice Breakup and Jamming
Abstract: Throughout spring and fall, ice-jam flooding can occur in rivers. The current ice-jam flood hazard assessments rely on gauged river data to predict and mitigate flooding. Unfortunately, many rivers that are at risk of ice-jam flooding do not have gauges, so current hazard assessment methods are less accurate in these areas. Using dendrogeomorphological methods, such as analyzing tree scars created by ice-jam flooding, we will test if this data can sufficiently replicate the long-term gauged data necessary for ice jam flood hazard assessment predictions. Dendrogeomorphological data will be collected near Fort McMurray, Alberta. Tree-ring data will be analyzed to estimate flood dates based on the tree scars from past ice jam flooding events. The dendrogeomorphological data will be compared with the actual gauged river data to assess its accuracy. With the flood stage data collected in the field, a stage frequency distribution will be calculated and compared with the current stage frequency distribution derived from gauged data. To what extent uncertainties in the distribution determined from tree-scar elevations propagate in the flood hazard assessment and mapping of downtown Fort McMurray will also be investigated. The new technique has the potential to advance hazard predictions in river regions with limited data, benefitting many remote communities impacted by ice jams.
Year: 2022