Author(s): Z. B. Wang; A. Roelfzema
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Humber ESTUARY; Long-term morphological modelling; Sea-level rise; Land reclamation
Abstract: Within his task as a manager/regulator of an estuary, the responsible officer often has to ask how will this estuary look like in the future? How it will develop due to natural changes, such as sea-level rise or due to human made interventions such as harbour extensions, reclamation works etc., and how may these developments affect the variety of the estuarine functions? The hybrid long-term morphological model ESTMORF has been developed in particular to assist in answering these questions. A pilot application of this model to the Humber estuary in England is described in the present paper. The major purpose of the study is to evaluate the ability of the ESTMORF model for studying long-term morphological developments in estuaries and to provide morphological data for ecological assessments. As an example of human interference a hypothetical land reclamation project is considered. Sea level rise has been included with different rates. Simulations of 50 years have been carried out for analysing the impact of the land reclamation project in combination with sea level rise. The simulated morphological changes due to sea level rise of 0.2 m/century (the present situation) agree quite well with the observations. The ability of the model for studying impacts of an accelerated sea-level rise and of human interference is well demonstrated.
Year: 2001