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Impact of Climate Change on Hydrologic Regime in Canard River Watershed, Ontario

Author(s): Rahman; M. ; T. Bolisetti; R. Balachandar

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Abstract: Canard River watershed, within the southern Ontario, is the largest subwatershed of Detroit River watershed on the Canadian side. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was implemented to assess the impacts of potential future climate change on the hydrology of the Canard River watershed. LARS-WG, weather generator was employed to generate daily future weather data at local scale using the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) outputs under SRES A2scenario for the years, 2041 to 2070. SWAT model was calibrated and validated against observed streamflow data. The Nash-Suttcliffe model efficiencies for monthly streamflow predictions were 0.81 and 0.85, respectively during the calibration and validation periods. It was found from the model results that average annual streamflow could be increased by 14% compared to that over the base period from1961 to 1990. The results also indicated that streamflow would be increased significantly in spring and winter, but would be decreased in fall due to the projected future climate change scenarios.

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Year: 2009

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