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Long-Term Reservoir Operation Using One-Month Ensemble Forecast of Precipitation for Introduction to a DSS

Author(s): D. Nohara; A. Tsuboi; T. Hori

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Abstract: Utilization method of frequently updated one-month ensemble forecast of precipitation for real-time decision making of release in the long-term reservoir operation is developed for the application to a DSS in this paper. One-month ensemble forecast of precipitation provided by Japan Meteorological Agency is employed for it. Sampling stochastic Dynamic Programming is employed for optimization of reservoir operation. Proposed model is applied to Sameura reservoir in Yoshino river basin, demonstrating better performance than that with no consideration of forecasts.

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Year: 2009

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