Author(s): M. A. Bari; R. P. Silberstein; S. K. Aryal
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Collie River; LUCICAT model; Climate change; Reforestation; Water availability; Rainfall-Runoff modelling
Abstract: The Collie River catchment (2830 km2) is one of the five Water Resources Recovery Catchments in Western Australia. About 10,000 ha of land was reforested for salinity reduction during the 1990s. This together with the reduction in rainfall over the last 30 years has resulted in a noticeable decrease in the average inflow to the reservoir. General Circulation Models (GCM) predict further reductions in rainfall in the future. The LUCICAT model was applied to the catchment to assess the impact of climate change and reforestation on future water availability in the form of reservoir inflows. Three scenarios were modelled (i) the historical sequence representing the 1975-2007 climate (Scenario A) (ii) recent climate representing the 1997-2007 climate (Scenario B), and (iii) future climate representing a 33-year climate series derived from different GCM projections of ～2030 climate (Scenario C). Results showed that there could be a further 9% reduction in rainfall and approximately30% reduction in inflows into the reservoir by 2030.
Year: 2011