Author(s): Magfira Syarifuddin, Satoru Oishi, Ratih Indri Hapsari, Yuka Ito, Djoko Legono
Linked Author(s): Magfira Syarifuddin
Keywords: Early warning system, lahar, rainfall, short-term rainfall prediction, merapi
Abstract: Severe rainfall intensity is the main triggering agent of hydrometeorology disaster. In the Merapi volcano of Indonesia, the major hydrometeorology disaster is lahar, which is a type of mudflow or debris flow composed of slurry pyroclastic material, rocky debris, and water. This paper discusses the development of an Early Warning System (EWS) framework according to the landform and rainfall characteristic. The landform analysis included the susceptibility classification of the sub-basins, while the rainfall analysis included numerical model of lahar and short-term rainfall forecasting. The proposed EWS framework could simulate real lahar event that happened on 17 Feb 2016 in Gendol and Woro river. The short-term rainfall forecasting required more improvement as the spatial distribution of rainfall gave weak correlation at 0. 19 and decreased by the increment of time. However, the temporal fluctuation gave satisfactory results compared to the observed rainfall temporal fluctuation. Considering the lahar behavior that usually happens unexpectedly, the application of the rainfall prediction will give benefit on lahar disaster management to prevent more lost and human casualties
Year: 2017