Author(s): Ahmed H. Elsayed; Mohamed Errih
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: No Keywords
Abstract: Recent developments with respect to transfer function-noise models are used to model and forecast ten-day natural inflows of the River Nile at Aswan. The input series are the natural ten-day discharges of the Blue Nile at Khartoum, the White Nile at Tamaniat, and of the river Atbara at mouth. Formal modeling procedures suggest a three-stage iterative process, namely: model identification, parameter estimation and diagnostic checks. An example of modeling multivariate streamflow series is concluded. An alternative modeling procedure is used and compared. The results obtained suggest that MARIMA models reproduce quite well the main statistical characteristics of the time series analyzed. It is concluded that the transfert function-noise model produces better forecasts for the natural ten-day inflows at Aswan. It is also assumed that the same conclusions apply for most water resources time series
Year: 1997