Author(s): Robert Frederking

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Abstract: Many engineering problems require an estimate of ice thickness, either the maximum likely thickness or the thickness at some time during the winter. This can be for estimating ice forces on an offshore structure in the sea or a bridge pier in a river. Operation of icebreaking ships requires knowledge of ice thickness to establish the viability of transit to northern ports. Similarly, over-ice transportation on seas, lakes or rives depends on a knowledge of ice thickness. At some locations historical records can be used to estimate ice thicknesses, but with changing climate historical records have limited applicability. Having means for predicting ice growth during a winter is a helpful tool. In high Arctic regions it is assumed the primary factors affecting ice growth are air temperature and snow depth. Assessment of the equations against data from Arctic weather stations indicates that the incorporation of snow depth in terms of a mean annual snow depth is a simple means for improving their predictive capability. Modified equations including mean annual snow depth and freezing degree days as input parameters are proposed and tested against available data at two locations in the Canadian High Arctic; Resolute Bay in a marine coastal environment and Baker lake in an inland freshwater lake. These modified prediction equations are proposed for general application in the Arctic.

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Year: 2018