Author(s): F. G. Bercha; R. H. Nagel; T. G. Brown
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Keywords: No Keywords
Abstract: The paper describes a method for evaluating the reliability of ice-structure interaction load predictions for different interaction modes, structure types, and ice kinematic and mechanical property cases. Specifically, following the derivation of reliability measures which take into consideration the variability of input kinematic and mechanical properties, accuracy of methodology, and reliability of inherent ice-structure interaction assumptions, several reliability case studies are described. These include various combinations of conical, cylindrical, and multi-pod structures interacting with first and multi-year ice sheets, ridges, and their combinations. The work described is based on applications of statistical methods to ice property evaluation as well as techniques of risk and reliability analysis applied to the ice-structure interaction equations and the assumptions upon which they are based. It is believed that a broad reliability evaluation of the type described in this paper has heretofore not been developed and applied, and thus the work described constitutes a novel and useful contribution to the field of Arctic marine and inland ice engineering.
Year: 1984