Author(s): F. G. Bercha; J. V. Danys; J. G. Rokne
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Keywords: No Keywords
Abstract: The development of a theory for selecting design ice forces for conical and cylindrical bottom-founded offshore structures was carried out utilizing probabilistic analytical methods and associated computational techniques. Flexural and crushing ice sheet failure phenomena were described utilizing extensions of the customary deterministic theories. Methods of probabilistic analysis, involving random variable techniques, were utilized to generate a set of probabilistic equations describing each of the pure mode interactions. These equations yielded values of the mean force and the associated standard deviation for any given set of principal input random variables, permitting the specification of a unique ice load spectrum. The magnitude of ice load associated with any given probability of occurrence was then obtainable directly from the spectrum. Numerical sensitivity analysis was utilized to identify salient combinations of random variables likely to occur, such as those associated with transitional or mixed ice sheet failure modes. Several relevant ice-structure interaction spectra were constructed and discussed in light of practical design implications.
Year: 1978