Author(s): Tahereh Alinejhad-Tabrizi, Nasser Hadjizadeh-Zaker, Bahareh Kamranzad
Linked Author(s): Tahereh Alinejhad
Keywords: Climate change, RCPs, ECMWF, CMIP5, Persian Gulf
Abstract: Assessment of climate change impacts on the wind field is a primary concern for environmental policy analysts all over the world. The aim of this study was to assess the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 results in wind speed, and to investigate the wind speed projections in the Persian Gulf at the end of 21st century. Two models from CMIP5 were selected and their results were compared quantitatively for the period 1986 to 2005, with ECMWF wind field as a reliable data in the study area. Results showed that CMIP5 wind speed in the Persian Gulf are underestimated and a regression or other complex approaches are required for modifying CMIP5 wind speed before being used as input data for climate change impact assessment. Variation of wind speed in the Persian Gulf were also evaluated using data for two Representative Concentration Pathways for the period 2081 to 2100. Time series of the annual averages of the wind speeds and statistical analysis indicate a decreasing trend in the point of study. Also, variation of statistical parameters such as maximum and minimum values showed an insignificant reduction compared to the period 1986 to 2005, which can lead to larger variation in wave characteristics and change in sediment transportation in the coastal areas
Year: 2017