Author(s): Miguel A. Reyes-Merlo; Pablo Roa-Prieto; Emilio Romero-Jimenez

Linked Author(s): Emilio Romero-jiménez, Miguel Ángel Reyes Merlo

Keywords: Freshwater resources; Water scarcity; Climate Change; Desalination; Monte-Carlo simulations

Abstract: Water scarcity is an increasingly frequent problem that managers must face these days. Traditional inland water resources are progressively declining, while the population of coastal areas is increasing. This is the case of several southern Spanish cities such as Alicante, Murcia and Cartagena. Since the 2000s, water desalination has been developed as a new way to transform potable water in these areas. Within these, the Spanish organization Mancomunidad de los Canales del Taibilla, under the Ministry for the Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge, has promoted desalination as a key freshwater resource. This work presents a methodology to evaluate the long-term availability, and its uncertainty, of freshwater resources in scenarios of water scarcity, applying it to said Spanish region. Three sources are identified: fluvial, an external transfer from a neighboring basin and desalinated seawater. Climate change estimates and historical records predict a 17,5% reduction in the river flow in 2050, while the external transfer could be canceled in 2035. Conversely, the total freshwater demand would remain constant, with the same values in 2050 than the current ones of ~200 hm3 per year. The inflows were characterized with Fourier time series, stationary and non-stationary distributions; and the Monte Carlo method was applied to assess the future management scenario. Results show that while desalination would increase 7,2% for the period 2023-2034, in 2035-2050 this increase is ~200% (148 hm3). Therefore, this work combines common but robust techniques that provide insightful results when it comes to addressing decisions related to freshwater scarcity scenarios.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3850/978-90-833476-1-5_iahr40wc-p0085-cd

Year: 2023