Author(s): Mou Leong Tan, Vivien P. Chua, Juneng Liew, Fredolin T. Tangang, Ngai Weng Chan
Linked Author(s): Ngai Weng Chan
Keywords: Precipitation, streamflow, SWAT, Johor, CMIP5
Abstract: Water resources in the Johor River Basin (JRB) are vital for the populations of Malaysia and Singapore. This study provides an overview of future hydro-climatic changes using climate projections from an ensemble of four dynamically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) products under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4. 5 and 8. 5 scenarios for the 2015-2100 period. The downscaled climate projections were incorporated into a calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to simulate future streamflow over the JRB. Overall, future annual precipitation, streamflow, maximum and minimum temperature are projected to change about -27. 8 to 17. 8%, -35. 8 to 17. 9%, 0. 4 to 3. 9oC and 0. 5 to 4oC, respectively, under different downscaled products and RCP scenarios. The projected precipitation and streamflow show little changes under the RCP 4. 5 scenario, but decrease significantly under the RCP 8. 5 scenario. Therefore, we recommend development of more desalination and waste water treatment plants in both countries, and exploration of groundwater as an alternative freshwater source for Malaysia
Year: 2017