Author(s): Febya Nurnadiati, Jos Timmermans, Iwan K. Hadihardaja, Wil Thissen
Linked Author(s): FEBYA NURNADIATI
Keywords: Model, urban water security, uncertainties, system dynamic, water management
Abstract: Urban water security indexes evaluate and compare the status of urban water systems. For example, the Asian Water Development Outlook (AWDO) Framework facilitates the assessment and comparison of the status of urban water systems of different cities based on four criteria; 1) piped urban water supply access, 2) urban wastewater collection, 3) economic damage due to floods and storms, and 4) river health. Changes in the urban water security index of a specific city are influenced by external developments like economic and population dynamics and shaped by urban water management as implemented by municipal authorities and contingent on regional or even national developments in water management, which involves identification of vulnerability and analysis of strategies under different possible futures in interaction with regional and national conditions. This complex planning challenge can be supported through Adaptive Urban Water Security Management. This paper describes the first phase in the development of this plan, the development of a fast and integrated model that can be used to explore the influence of deep uncertainty and regional interactions on urban water security. The model adopts system dynamic as its approach and use VenSim as the software platform. The model is functionally defined in terms of scenarios, policy actions, outcome indicators, and relevant processes that should be simulated. Output of the model shows the changes of the urban water security index over time in transient scenarios that include external scenarios of economic development and climate change, regional policies, investment in urban water management and autonomous responses. Three scenarios that reflect different uncertainties are used to illustrate the dynamics of the water security index of greater Jakarta
Year: 2017