Author(s): Wenqing Lin; Huopo Chen; Dawei Zhang; Fan Wang; Wuxia Bi; Weiqi Wang

Linked Author(s): Dawei Zhang

Keywords: Climate Change; Contribution; Extreme Snowfall; Eurasia; Population Exposure

Abstract: The frequent occurrences of extreme snowfall over part of Eurasia have caused substantial economic losses and severely impacted society. This study utilizes CMIP6 model datasets and future population projections to predict population risks from changes in extreme snowfall across Eurasia under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios while also attributing the factors influencing future changes in population exposure. Our results show that snowstorm days and corresponding population risk continue to increase on averaged Eurasia during the mid-term (2041-2060) of the 21st century and before. In particular, population exposure to snowstorm days will increase by 4.1% and 1.8% in the near (2021-2040) and mid-term across Eurasia, especially significant over Central Asia, East Asia, and the Mediterranean. Population contribution is the main factor of changes in population exposure to snowstorm days over Eurasia, followed by climate and climate-population interaction. By the end of this century, as the snowstorm days and population decrease dramatically, the corresponding population exposure will further decrease. Therefore, the potential population risks associated with the increase in snowstorm events in Eurasia should be taken into consideration for climate adaptation policymaking until the mid-21st century.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3850/iahr-hic2483430201-219

Year: 2024