Author(s): Laura Melo Vieira Soares, Talita Fermanda Das Graças Silva, Brigitte Vincon-Leite, Julian Cardoso Eleutério, Nilo De Oliveira Nascimento
Linked Author(s): Laura Soares
Keywords: Tropical reservoir, GLM-AED, reservoir modeling, mixing process
Abstract: Climate change is expected to impact on lakes and reservoirs directly via atmospheric drivers and indirectly through changes in catchment characteristics and in hydrologic cycle. It is generally expected that global warming will alter the thermal structure of surface water bodies, with a shift towards earlier and more intense thermal stratification accompanied by a greater epilimnion volume, thereby increasing the potential biologically active zone. These impacts can affect frequency and/or the severity of algal bloom occurrences. The aim of this work is to assess the vulnerability of a strategic drinking water reservoir, located in a tropical metropolitan region, in face of climate change. We investigated the threats to the water security of this water supply system using a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model for simulating the thermal temperature profile and vertical stratification. We evaluated direct impacts from two scenarios of air temperature warming: increase of 0. 8 oC and increase of 2. 6 oC; and indirect impacts of climate change from two scenarios of changes in inflows discharge, which are the decrease of 0. 9 % and increase of 8. 1 %. The project site was Serra Azul Reservoir, located in southeastern Brazil. The results indicates prolonged duration of stratification and warmer water temperature in surface and in 15. 0 m depth. We expect that the results should help to propose guidelines for the management of the reservoir and its catchment in order to reduce the vulnerability of water supply system in face of a non-stationary climate
Year: 2017