Author(s): Shunsuke Suzuki, Daisuke Nohara, Tomoharu Hori, Yoshinobu Sato
Linked Author(s): Shunsuke Suzuki
Keywords: : Climate change, water supply, reservoir operation, Hydro-BEAM, future river discharge
Abstract: Impact assessment of climate change on operation of reservoir systems and river discharges in Japanese river basins have been conducted as a fundamental study in order to develop a method to operate reservoirs more effectively under the expected future climate condition. Current climate data (1979-2003) and future climate data (2075-2099) projected by MRI-AGCM3. 2S, a high resolution AGCM developed by Meteorological Research Institute, are used as meteorological input. River discharges in both climates are respectively estimated from climate data by use of Hydro-BEAM (Hydrological River Basin Environment Assessment Model), a cell concentrate type hydrological model, integrating operation of reservoirs for water supply and water intake in the target river basins. The assessment is conducted in the Yoshino River basin where droughts often occur, and the Mogami River basin where snow melting water contributes to river discharge significantly. The results suggested that the potential changes in river discharge that may increase a risk of drought in the future. The assessment also demonstrates that the model considering anthropogenic river flow regulation such as reservoir operation or water intake can provide a different result of impact assessment compared to those without considering anthropogenic regulation, indicating importance of consideration of reservoir operation in the assessment of climate change impacts
Year: 2017