Author(s): Yasuhiro Yoshikawa; Hiroshi Yokoyama; Tomomichi Hirata; Takaaki Abe
Linked Author(s): yasuhiro yoshikawa, Hiroshi Yokoyama
Keywords: Break-up period; Estimation method; Ice sheet thickness; Acceleration; River
Abstract: In this study, we have proposed a method for estimating the break-up time that occurs before the occurrence of an ice jam. As ice sheet thickness decreases during the break-up period, we attempted to improve the precision of the ice sheet thickness estimation method. The ice sheet thickness calculation formula considers snow cover, snow melt, and rainfall indicating that the accuracy of the calculation value is high, and the dominant parameter in the calculation was found to be the computed minimum water temperature. The acceleration of the variation of ice sheet thickness variation P_B was used to estimate the break-up period. We developed a practical ice break-up period estimation method that uses six input values. With this method, the P_B peak occurs near the vicinity where the ice jam occurs, and the break-up period was estimated on the safe side. The thickness of the ice sheet when the entire surface is frozen was also determined to be another important parameter in this method.
Year: 2024