Author(s): Krzysztof Pilczynski; Ryszard Staroszczyk; Zuzanna Cuban
Linked Author(s): Zuzanna Cuban
Keywords: Sea ice; Freezing index; Ice thickness; South Baltic Se
Abstract: In this paper the evolution of sea ice and snow characteristics in the South Baltic in the period 1948–2022 is investigated. Based on the data coming from historical observations, meteorological measurements and climate modelling, an analysis has been conducted with the main purpose to provide engineers with useful sets of parameters necessary for designing, operating and maintenance of offshore renewable energy facilities to be constructed in the Polish economic zone. Following a successful validation of hindcast numerical results against the meteorological data collected at the harbour of Leba (on the Polish coast), the hindcast datasets for a 75-year period have been used to calculate the distributions of the number of freezing days and the values of the freezing index (cumulative freezing degree-days) for the location of a planned offshore wind farm. By applying then the methods of statistics and the formulae used in civil engineering practice, sea ice thicknesses for assumed return periods of 50 and 100 years have been estimated for the wind farm site. In addition, the average rates at which the characteristics of ice and snow cover change have been evaluated for two locations, illustrating thus the impact of the climate warming on the long-term evolution of winter conditions in the South Baltic.
Year: 2024