Author(s): Yinzhu Liu, Xueping Gao, Bowen Sun
Linked Author(s): Yinzhu Liu
Keywords: : Uncertainty, joint probability, multi-water resources, water allocation optimization, agricultural shortage
Abstract: This study presents a copula-based chance-constrained optimization approach for integrated agricultural water and water resources management. The construction of water transfer projects brings new challenges to water resources management, especially in water rational allocation and supply risk with multiple water resources. Transferring water and local surface water are both influence factors of water allocation and the individual effect, and their combination should be considered to assess water supply risk better. Besides, due to the growth of irrigated area and water diversion from agriculture to municipality and industry, the lack of agricultural water become the obstacle of urban development. It is necessary to determine the laws of the relationship between water ability and the loss in different combination of multi-water resources. A copula-based approach is proposed for estimating the joint probability of available multi-water and sampling from multivariate probability distribution. The multi-objective optimization model was employed to provide the optimal water allocation solution with multi-water resources. The relationship curves under the different multi-water resources supply conditions between the joint probability and the agricultural shortage were fitted to assess the impact of multi-water resources on the loss caused by conveyance. The study also offers an approach for effective and reliable identification of important allocation model influence factors, responding to the priorities of different water resources. It can improve the ability of multi-water resources overall distribution and the adaptation to uncertainty water resources, aiming to reduce the water supply risk and achieve sustainable development. Furthermore, the results of the study emphasize the importance to improve and update transferring and local water management and relevant countermeasures in order to ensure future water security
Year: 2017