Author(s): Reinhardt Pinzón, Tosiyuki Nakaegawa, Kenshi Hibino, Izuru Takayabu

Linked Author(s): Tosiyuki Nakaegawa

Keywords: Climate analogue; Climate change; Surface air temperature; Rainfall; Nonparametric method; West South America;

Abstract: By means of a recently customary nonparametric method future climate analogues were predictable for West South American capital cities. The nonparametric scheme showed in this research for identifying climate analogues can be applied for impact assessments under a changing climate. MRI-AGCM3.2H with a horizontal resolution of 60 km, three convection schemes, four sea surface temperature distributions, and two initial conditions and under scenario A1B of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios were used. The total ensemble scope was 24, with a simulation period of 25 years. Utmost of the future analogues are at lower latitudes than their target cities. Estimated seasonal variations in surface air temperature and rainfall in Santiago de Chile City look similar to the present-day climate of Cape Town, located in South Africa and for La Paz City a climate analogue is found at Oruro in Bolivia.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3850/38WC092019-1536

Year: 2019