Author(s): Paloma Furlan; Michael Pfister; Jorge Matos; Conceição Amado; Anton J. Schleiss

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Keywords: Large wood; spillway blockage; physical model; Bernoulli trials; confidence intervals

Abstract: Large wood is often transported by rivers into reservoirs during heavy rainfall events. When a critical section like a spillway is blocked and discharge capacity reduced, an uncontrolled increase of the reservoir water level may occur. This study aims to statistically analyse the importance of repetitions for the accuracy of experimental campaigns when studying blocking probabilities at ogee crested spillways equipped with piers. Systematic and reliable estimations based on physical models are critical for developing preventive measures against large wood blockage. Two statistical methods have been described and applied to calculate confidence intervals. A minimum number of repetitions for a maximum acceptable error is recommended for blocking probabilities. The minimum number of experimental repetitions has been statistically justified in accordance with a reasonable use of resources for experimental campaigns. In addition, a maximum acceptable level of error is proposed as a common metric of accuracy in large wood studies.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00221686.2018.1478897

Year: 2019