Author(s): Sho Tomura; Manabu Chiba; Taro Yamamoto; Fumihiko Uemura; Shigekazu Masuya; Noriaki Omura; Takatoshi Yoshida; Atsushi Takeda; Tsuyoshi Hoshino; Tomohito Yamada; Makoto Nakatsugawa
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Climate change; Large ensemble climate projection database; Fatality estimation; LIFESim model; Life loss evaluation model
Abstract: In recent years, large-scale floods frequently caused many fatalities in Japan. In Hokkaido, northern Japan, serious flood damage caused by hit of the three consecutive typhoons and approach of another typhoon in August 2016. After this, it became necessary to grasp accurate flood risk under future climate for considering climate change adaptation measures. The LIFESim model is used widely in Japan, which estimates numbers of fatalities based on water depth in flooded area. However, in the Netherlands, the life loss evaluation model has been used to grasp human damage in the national risk assessment project called Floris. This model considers not only flood depth but also water velocity and rise rate of water. In this study, we simulated floods for heavy rainfall events over the Tokachi River basin in Hokkaido under past and future climate detected from large ensemble climate projection data (d4PDF). We estimated the fatality in the urban area of Obihiro city located in the center of the Tokachi River basin from the simulation results by LIFESim model and life loss evaluation model. Finally, this study elucidated the differences of fatality by each model.
Year: 2020