Author(s): L. W. A. De Silva; H. Yamaguchi
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Abstract: To understand the state of the atmosphere, ocean and sea ice in the Chukchi Sea and Beaufort Sea of the Arctic Ocean, a Japanese research vessel (RV) MIRAI entered the Arctic water from 7 to 29 October 2019. The Arctic sea ice conditions, which is very critical for this icestrengthen ship, can change over short timescales due to dynamics and thermodynamics during the cruise periods. Leads may open and close in a very short time, and heavy ice pressure may build up in the compression of compact ice. These short-time and small-scale processes have a strong influence on shipping on the ice infested water. Therefore, precise ice distribution and ice edge predictions in the medium range (10–day scale) are one of the key issues to keep safe and efficient navigation. In this study, a high-resolution (about 2.5 km) ice-ocean coupled model is developed for forecasting the medium range sea ice distribution in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast atmospheric high-resolution 10-day forecasted forcing data is used for the sea ice prediction simulations. Initial sea ice distribution is given by observational AMSR2 sea ice concentration. Temperature and salinity boundary conditions at the Bering Strait is supplied using the RIOPS model data. Since MIRAI is an ice-strengthened ship that has to avoid the thick sea ice with high ice cover as much as possible. Forecast skill is measured by ice edge error, which is the average distance between forecast and observed ice edges. Using a threshold of 15% sea ice concentration to indicate the ice edge, the maximum ice edge error in the ice–ocean coupled model in the Chukchi Sea is 40 km.
Year: 2020