Author(s): Do Hoai Nam; Nguyen Quoc Dung; Keiko Udo; Akira Mano
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Climate change; Super-high resolution climate model; Extreme rainfall index
Abstract: Increases in extreme weather events as a result of global warming apparently exacerbate tresses on existing water-related infrastructures as well as the design criteria of new ones, especially the flood defence and drainage systems. This study presents an assessment of change in extreme rainfall indices over Vietnam, a country most exposed to climate change, based on simulations from the state-of-the-art super-high resolution global climate model for the near future (2015-2039) and future (2075-2099) climate under the emission scenario A1B. Core extreme rainfall indices over land calculated from the model output in future climate are compared to those in the baseline period (1979-2003). Results show that most extreme rainfall indices are projected to increase significantly in most parts of the country. Short-term precipitation intensities and frequencies representing the risks of flooding will greatly increase in the future climate with larger increases in the northern and southern regions. In the near future, a decreasing tendency of extreme rainfall events is projected for the northeast and southeast. Dry spells will be longer in the central and southern regions; meanwhile, they are likely to be shorter in the northern region.
Year: 2014