Author(s): Soojin Moon; Boosik Kang
Linked Author(s):
Keywords: Climate change; AR5 RCP scenarios; MRI-CGCM3
Abstract: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has provided the Fifth Assessment Scenarios (AR5) in 2013. The AR5 has updated knowledge on the scientific, technical and socio-economic aspects of climate change to improve the accuracy through complemented by deterioration and resolution for AR4 scenarios. In this study, 10 GCMs scenarios provided by CMIP5 (the phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) were selected in order to select most adapted GCM. Especially, the MRI-CGCM3 was shown the best evaluation results among the single GCMs at the Seoul gauge station. The Seoul gauge station is located in Han-river basin. The result indicated the GCM Scenarios tend to underestimate the summer precipitation in the East-Asia. Therefore, the bias correction methods such as quantile mapping and change factor were used. The baseline (1981~2010) calibration gives just 1.5%bias under the MRI-CGCM3scenario. The calibrated precipitation applied to derive the IDF (Intensity-Duration-Frequency) and SDF (SeverityDuration-Frequency) curves on the probability precipitation and drought index.
Year: 2014