Author(s): Rubina Ansari; Ana Casanueva; Giovanna Grossi
Linked Author(s): Giovanna Grossi
Keywords: No Keywords
Abstract: The temporal compounding of two contrasting extremes of the hydrological spectrum (droughts and floods) reflects a volatile hydrological cycle, thereby rendering water and emergency management more difficult due to the need to balance the long-term storage of water and short-term flood control. The present study aims to investigate the temporal compounding of extreme wet and dry events in the Upper Jhelum Basin (UJB) in the context of climate change, utilizing simulations from three modeling initiatives (CMIP6, CORDEX, and CORDEX-CORE) under low, medium, and high emission scenarios for two time segments, i. e., near future (2040-2059) and far future (2080-2099). Meteorological wet and dry conditions, as drivers of hydrologic floods and droughts, are characterized by using a multivariate drought index (namely the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI). The temporal compounding of wet and dry events, their statistical interdependency and significance are investigated using event coincidence analysis (ECA). Results show that the probability of dry to wet (D-to-W) compound events (CEs) is much higher and statistically significant than the wet to dry (W-to-D) CEs under both retrospective and prospective climate contexts. Specifically, the southwest part of the basin under monsoon dominated precipitation pattern is found to be the hotspot for D-to-W CEs, which was not found to be hotspot historically neither for dry nor for wet extreme events.
Year: 2024